How can disasters be predicted

We had to test it to be sure. The 17 undergraduates, with no prior experience in photogrammetry or structure from motion, were split into 3 groups with different directives and given one hour to collect photos. Such roles included tourists, travel bloggers, and photographers. Group B was given a one-sentence directive on how to capture quality photos for the project, and were asked to approach it from the perspective of a concerned citizen, observatory intern, or photogrammetry hobbyist — people who, in the real world, might have interest in disaster risk reduction or community engagement.

We wanted to find out whether the data sets would progressively improve in quality if people were more informed before taking photos. Together, the crowdsourced photos created terrain models that are precise and relatively cheap and easy to produce. Credit: Ratner et al. Once the photos were collected and randomly downsampled to data sets of equivalent size, we ran the photos through the free structure from motion software Visual SFM, and refined the resultant point clouds using the free software Cloud Compare.

We were able to use the previously collected Lidar as reference data, and mapped our SFM point clouds onto it. We were mildly surprised to see that with the exception of Group A, the other three SFM data sets actually outperformed the Lidar in terms of data density for the study area, by up to a factor of There were some differences in the density distribution of data points, which is a quirk of structure from motion that makes the result look uneven when compared to Lidar.

But each data set was accurate to within a meter of the Lidar, which is more than adequate for disaster modeling. With the low cost, speed of processing, and low barriers to accessibility computers and camera phones are ubiquitous; Lidar rigs are not , it was easy to conclude that crowdsourced SFM indeed produces a viable alternative to traditional terrain modeling techniques. All you need are a basic computer set up and digital photos collected via citizen science or crowdsourcing.

Check out the study in Progress in Physical Geography! The next step is to compare Lidar and SFM point clouds again, but in a less ideal environment.

Citizen scientists play a crucial role in this process. Rebora said, "In both cases, a timely alert was issued more than 12 to 24 hours in advance. This year, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are currently using the latest computer models and high-performance computers to set-up an early warning system.

The storm-scale ensemble forecast system aims to predict the probability of severe storms every hour over a subsequent one to two day period. This ensemble approach is a set of numerical models that have horizontal grid spacing of one to four kilometers 0. They provide a predictability of certain outcomes. For accurate tornado forecasts, researchers need model resolutions of 50 to 75 meters to feet.

Instead of drilling down to this detail, they can understand tornado formation by studying supercell thunderstorms at scales of around 10 kilometers six miles. These supercells are used as a proxy to predict the probability of tornado formation. To get accurate predictions researchers, such as Amy McGovern from the University of Oklahoma , simulate to storms.

She then extracts meta-data about winds blowing upward and downward, and other data, to identify tornado-forming signatures. We build a forest of decision trees to make predictions," McGovern said. Now, the main challenge is developing methods to allow forecasters to digest and interpret the large amount of data coming.

Human forecasters excel at pattern recognition and can be better than computers at this task. An outbreak of fire in a family home, power plant, or forest can lead to loss of life, and costly environmental and economic damage. For example, in Europe forest fires burn on average 5, square kilometers 1, square miles every year. The Slovakian National Grid Infrastructure have run a six-month virtual team fire simulation project , as part of the European Grid Infrastructure , to share computational resources and to develop more accurate fire and smoke simulations to predict fire's behaviour.

The virtual project brought together the expertise of European fire research, including Slovakian, Spanish, and Portuguese researchers. When simulating fires in tunnels, for example, they used a distributed computing version of the Fire Dynamics Simulator , a numerical software tool developed by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology.

We were asked by the highest fire authorities to prepare a computer simulation of family house fires for court of law purposes. Even in the depths of the ocean, a volcanic vent or fissure can spew large amounts of planet-warming CO 2 , create tsunamis, or generate deafening noise that can harm marine life.

This was the first time that an accurate eruption estimate had been made of an underwater volcano. Our short-term seismic methods are accurate from within a few days to hours once we see a volcanic event begin," Dziak said. These techniques are the most accurate technology currently available to the ocean science research community. Another amazing aspect of the story was that even though one of my seafloor hydrophones was buried under 30 cm It was still able to communicate with the research vessel on the sea surface.

Using different sensors to measure the temperature, pressure, relative humidity, amount of water vapor and liquid water, and wind speed and direction in a hurricane, unmanned vehicles such as the Global Hawk also collect valuable data after a disaster since they are often the only way to reach remote or isolated areas. Global Hawk took part in Operation Tomodachi to relay vital visuals on earthquake and tsunami damage to towns and the Fukushima nuclear plant in Information like this is also valuable for predicting future disasters; building damage recorded after the Haitian earthquake in could help efforts to rebuild to a safer code.

Researchers also seek better ways to analyze and present data for faster and more accurate predictions. Combined systems like EDSS Environmental Decision Support System; Northrop Grumman aggregate data sets, then present them in an easily accessible manner to answer key questions — where? Improving analysis also boosts predictive power; USGS researchers are examining fractal mathematics for improved data analysis.

Compared to traditional statistical methods, fractals gave more information on past hurricane events. For future hurricanes, in terms of predictive power, fractal-based predictions are much more precise.

Order out of chaos? Prediction out of whirlwinds? You could make a difference in natural disaster prediction — check out the Northrop Grumman careers page for details. A new study reveals details about a species of prehistoric rhino that lived in the Tibetan plateau.

In the complex carbon molecule methanol a key molecule of life was discovered in a developing solar. In the evolving science of predicting natural disasters, collecting lots of data makes the impossible a Data visualization increases the value of the numbers, bringing them to life for viewers and researchers Even in this high-tech age, the weather still rules the planet.

Long-range weather forecasting is moving